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Hogs Post Mixed Trade on Wednesday

Lean hog futures were mixed on Wednesday, with nearby April down a nickel and other contracts higher. The USDA national average base hog negotiated price was reported at $91.64 on Wednesday afternoon. The CME Lean Hog Index was down another penny from the previous day at $89.70 on March 10.

USDA’s FOB plant pork cutout was back down $3 in the Wednesday afternoon report at $94.58 per cwt. All primals were reported lower, with the belly leading the charge to the downside $13.25. USDA estimated Wednesday’s Federally inspected hog slaughter at 489,000 head, with the weekly total at 1.465 million head. That is 133,000 head above last week and 41,579 head larger than the same week last year.

Apr 25 Hogs  closed at $86.500, down $0.050,

May 25 Hogs  closed at $90.450, up $0.250

Jun 25 Hogs  closed at $98.700, up $0.325,

Soybeans Face Losses on Wednesday

Soybeans were pressured lower on Wednesday, with losses of 9 to 11 cents across most nearbys at the close. CmdtyView’s national front month Cash Bean price was 10 1/4 cents lower at $9.37. Soymeal futures were down $1.70 to $2.50/ton in the nearbys on Wednesday, with Soy Oil futures 19 to 26 points lower. 

Retaliatory tariffs from the EU due to President Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs are set to begin in early April and include soybeans. While the EU has no US soybeans on the books, the US has shipped 4.5 MMT to the EU this marketing year.

USDA’s weekly Export Sales report will be released tomorrow morning, with estimates of 275,000 to 700,000 MT for 2024/25 soybean sales. Sales for new crop are estimated at 0-100,000 MT. Soybean meal sales are seen in a range of 190,000 to 410,000 MT, with bean oil between 40,000 and 85,000 MT.

Stats Canada planting intentions data from this morning showed producers expecting to plant 21.65 million acres of canola this year, down 1.7% from last year if realized. Soybean acreage is estimated at 5.64 million aces, down 1.37% yr/yr.

Mar 25 Soybeans  closed at $9.87 1/2, down 10 1/4 cents,

Nearby Cash  was $9.37, down 10 1/4 cents,

May 25 Soybeans  closed at $10.00 1/2, down 10 3/4 cents,

Nov 25 Soybeans  closed at $10.06 1/2, down 9 cents,

New Crop Cash  was $9.42 1/1, down 9 cents,

Cattle Rallies on Wednesday, with April Back Above $200

Live cattle futures were in rally mode on Wednesday, as contracts were up $1.27 to $1.85. Cash trade has been quiet so far this week, with a few light sales of $200 in KS to start out on Wednesday. Feeder cattle posted gains of $2.75 to $3.025 at the Wednesday close. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back up $2.17 on March 11, with the average price at $278.71. 

The Wednesday afternoon National Wholesale Boxed Beef prices were mixed, with the Chc/Sel narrowing back down to $13.57. Choice boxes were down a dime at $321.10/cwt, with Select 67 cents higher at $307.53. Wednesday’s Federally inspected cattle slaughter was estimated at 123,000 head by the USDA, taking the weekly total to 362,000 head. That is 17,000 head above the previous week and 12,422 larger than the same week last year.

Apr 25 Live Cattle  closed at $201.400, up $1.850,

Jun 25 Live Cattle  closed at $197.875, up $1.625,

Aug 25 Live Cattle  closed at $195.550, up $1.275,

Mar 25 Feeder Cattle  closed at $280.250, up $2.750,

Apr 25 Feeder Cattle  closed at $280.725, up $3.025,

May 25 Feeder Cattle  closed at $281.875, up $2.925,

Cotton Posts Strength on Wednesday

Cotton futures posted another rebound session on Wednesday, up 72 to 100 points to close out the day. Crude oil futures were up $1.44/barrel to provide some support, with the US dollar index back up $0.227 on the day.

Tuesday’s online auction from The Seam showed 5,072 bales sold, with an average price of 63.56 cents/lb. The Cotlook A Index was up another 25 points on 3/11 at 77.95 cents/lb. ICE cotton stocks were steady again on Tuesday, March 11, with the current level of certified stocks at 14,488 bales. The USDA slashed their Adjusted World Price (AWP) last Thursday afternoon by 201 points to 51.88 cents/lb. It will be updated again on Thursday.

May 25 Cotton  closed at 66.98, up 98 points,

Jul 25 Cotton  closed at 68.16, up 97 points,

Oct 25 Cotton  closed at 69.92, up 72 points

Wheat Closes Mixed on Wednesday

The wheat market posted mixed action on Wednesday, as KC led the way higher. Chicago SRW futures were 2 to 3 cents in the red at the close. KC HRW futures were 1 to 3 cents higher on the session. MPLS spring wheat closed down 2 to 3 cents. 

The next week looks to be drier in the Southern Plains, with much of TX, and portions of KS/OK seeing dryness out to March 20.

Canadian wheat acreage is expected to be up 2.6% from last year in 2025 at 27.475 million acres, according to Stats Canada planting intentions data from this morning. Much of the increase is estimated from spring wheat, seen at 19.42 million acres, up 2.5% yr/yr with durum steady at 6.36 million acres.

Ahead of the Thursday morning Export Sales release, traders are expecting to see a total of 275,000 and 650,000 MT in old crop wheat sales. Sales for 2025/26 are seen at 0-100,000 MT.

Algeria purchased wheat in a tender on Wednesday, with traders estimating anywhere from 500,000 to 650,000 MT bought. 

Mar 25 CBOT Wheat  closed at $5.38 3/4, down 2 1/4 cents,

May 25 CBOT Wheat  closed at $5.54, down 2 3/4 cents,

Mar 25 KCBT Wheat  closed at $5.61 3/4, up 3 cents,

May 25 KCBT Wheat  closed at $5.73, up 1 cent,

Mar 25 MGEX Wheat  closed at $5.80 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents,

May 25 MGEX Wheat  closed at $5.94 1/2, down 2 3/4 cents,

Corn Heads Lower as Traders Take Risk Off Approach on Fresh Tariffs

Corn posted losses across the board on Wednesday, with contracts down 6 to 10 cents at the close. The front months were the leaders. The CmdtyView national average Cash Corn price was down 9 cents at $4.22 1/4. 

Retaliatory tariffs from the EU due to the US tariffs on steel and aluminum are set to begin in early April and include corn. While the EU has very little US corn on the books, the US has shipped 2.47 MMT of corn to the EU this MY. Canada’s energy minister stated that potential retaliatory tariffs on US goods could hit ethanol in their second round of duties, which are threatened if the US proceeds with the delayed USMCA tariffs on April 2. 

The weekly EIA report showed ethanol production cut back by 31,000 barrels per day in the week ending on March 7, with a total of 1.062 million bpd. Stocks of ethanol rose 87,000 barrels to 27.376 million barrels. Stocks in the Midwest expanded to a record 11.537 million barrels. Refiner inputs of ethanol were down 13,000 bpd to 877,000 bpd, as gasoline product supplied (implied use) was the highest since early November at 9.182 million bpd. 

Prior to Thursday morning’s Export Sales report, traders are looking for 0.75 and 1.4 MMT in old crop corn bookings during the week that ended on 3/6. New crop sales are estimated to total between 0 and 100,000 MT.

Mar 25 Corn  closed at $4.48 3/4, down 7 3/4 cents,

Nearby Cash  was $4.22 1/4, down 9 cents,

May 25 Corn  closed at $4.60 3/4, down 9 1/2 cents,

Dec 25 Corn  closed at $4.48 1/4, down 6 1/4 cents,

New Crop Cash  was $4.12 5/8, down 6 3/4 cents,

Corn Falling at Midday with Tariff Risk Off

The corn market is posting double digit losses across most contracts on Wednesday, with contracts 10 to 12 cents lower in the nearbys. New crop December is 7 cents lower. CmdtyView’s national average Cash Corn price is down 11 1/2 cents at $4.20 1/2. 

Canada’s energy minister stated that potential retaliatory tariffs on US goods could hit ethanol in their second round of duties, which are threatened if the US proceeds with the delayed USMCA tariffs on April 2. Retaliatory tariffs from the EU due to President Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs are set to begin in early April and are likely to include corn. While the EU has very little US corn on the books, the US has shipped 2.47 MMT of corn to the EU this MY.

The weekly EIA report showed ethanol production cut back by 31,000 barrels per day in the week ending on March 7, with a total of 1.062 million bpd. Stocks of ethanol rose 87,000 barrels to 27.376 million barrels. Stocks in the Midwest expanded to a record 11.537 million barrels. Refiner inputs of ethanol were down 13,000 bpd to 877,000 bpd, as gasoline product supplied (implied use) was the highest since early November at 9.182 million bpd. 

Ahead of the Thursday morning Export Sales report, traders are looking for 0.75 and 1.4 MMT in old crop corn bookings during the week that ended on 3/6. New crop sales are estimated to total between 0 and 100,000 MT.

Mar 25 Corn is at $4.46, down 10 1/2 cents,

Nearby Cash is at $4.20 1/2, down 11 1/2 cents,

May 25 Corn is at $4.58 1/2, down 11 3/4 cents,

Dec 25 Corn is at $4.47 1/2, down 7 cents,

New Crop Cash is at $4.10 1/2, down 8 cents,

Cotton Continuing Higher on Wednesday

Cotton futures are holding onto the gains, with contracts up 46 to 72 points at midday. The outside markets are mixed at midday, with crude oil futures up $1.44/barrel and the US dollar index back up $0.197 on the day.

The Monday online auction from The Seam showed 5,072 bales sold, with an average price of 63.56 cents/lb. The Cotlook A Index was up another 25 points on 3/11 at 77.95 cents/lb. ICE cotton stocks were steady again on Tuesday, March 11, with the current level of certified stocks at 14,488 bales. The USDA slashed their Adjusted World Price (AWP) last Thursday afternoon by 201 points to 51.88 cents/lb. It will be updated again on Thursday.

May 25 Cotton  is at 66.72, up 72 points,

Jul 25 Cotton  is at 67.9, up 71 points,

Oct 25 Cotton  is at 69.66, up 46 points

Wheat Slipping Weaker on Wednesday

The wheat market is trading with contracts mostly weaker on Wednesday. Chicago SRW futures are 3 to 4 cents in the red on the day. KC HRW futures are steady at midday. MPLS spring wheat is down 4 to 5 cents. There were 12 deliveries for March CBT wheat futures overnight, with 29 for March KC wheat.

Canadian wheat acreage is expected to be up 2.6% from last year in 2025 at 27.475 million acres, according to Stats Canada planting intentions data from this morning. Much of the increase is estimated from spring wheat, seen at 19.42 million acres, up 2.5% yr/yr with durum steady at 6.36 million acres.

Ahead of the Thursday morning Export Sales release, traders are expecting to see a total of 275,000 and 650,000 MT in old crop wheat sales. Sales for 2025/26 are seen at 0-100,000 MT.

Algeria purchased wheat in a tender on Wednesday, with traders estimating anywhere from 500,000 to 650,000 MT of wheat purchased. 

Mar 25 CBOT Wheat  is at $5.34, down 7 cents,

May 25 CBOT Wheat  is at $5.53 1/2, down 3 1/4 cents,

Mar 25 KCBT Wheat  is at $5.58 3/4, down 7 cents,

May 25 KCBT Wheat  is at $5.72, unch,

Mar 25 MGEX Wheat  is at $5.82 3/4, down 7 1/4 cents,

May 25 MGEX Wheat  is at $5.93, down 4 1/4 cents,

Cattle Bulls Pushing Back Above $200 on Wednesday

Live cattle futures are trying to push back higher at midday, with contracts up $1.10 to $1.45 as April tries to climb back above $100. Cash trade has been quiet so far this week, with a few light bids of $200 in KS to start out. This morning’s online Fed Cattle Exchange auction form Central Stockyards showed no sales on the 1,836 head listed and bids near $198. Feeder cattle are trading with contracts $1.65 to $2.20 higher. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back up $2.59 on March 10, with the average price at $276.54. 

Wednesday morning’s National Wholesale Boxed Beef prices were higher, with the Chc/Sel narrowing back down to $12.74. Choice boxes were up a nickel at $321.25/cwt, with Select $1.65 higher at $308.51. The Tuesday Federally inspected cattle slaughter was estimated at 124,000 head by the USDA, taking the weekly total to 239,000 head. That is 14,000 head above the previous week and 5,152 larger than the same week last year.

Apr 25 Live Cattle  are at $201.000, up $1.450,

Jun 25 Live Cattle  are at $197.525, up $1.275,

Aug 25 Live Cattle  are at $195.375, up $1.100,

Mar 25 Feeder Cattle  are at $279.150, up $1.650

Apr 25 Feeder Cattle  are at $279.900, up $2.200

May 25 Feeder Cattle  are at $281.125, up $2.175

Hogs Mixed at Wednesday’s Midday

Lean hog futures are showing mixed trade on Wednesday with nearbys down 10 to 60 cents and other deferred contracts slightly higher The USDA national average base hog negotiated price was reported at $91.42 this morning, up $1.97 from the previous day. The CME Lean Hog Index was down another penny from the previous day at $89.70 on March 10. 

USDA’s FOB plant pork cutout was back down $2.45 in the Wednesday morning report at $95.15 per cwt. The butt was the only primal reported higher, with the belly leading the charge lower, down $11.69. USDA estimated the Tuesday Federally inspected hog slaughter at 489,000 head, with the weekly total at 976,000 head. That is 10,000 head above last week and 36,706 head larger than the same week last year.

Apr 25 Hogs  are at $85.950, down $0.600,

May 25 Hogs  are at $90.100, down $0.100

Jun 25 Hogs  is at $98.525, up $0.150,

Soybeans Giving into Weakness on Wednesday

Soybeans are facing continued weakness on Wednesday, with losses of 11 to 14 cents across most nearbys. The cmdtyView national front month Cash Bean price was down 14 1/4 cents at $9.33. Soymeal futures are down $1.90/ton in the nearbys, with Soy Oil futures 33 points lower. There were 60 deliveries for March soybeans overnight, with 0 for meal and 56 for March bean oil. 

Retaliatory tariffs from the EU due to President Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs are set to begin in early April and are likely to include soybeans. While the EU has no US soybeans on the books, the US has shipped 4.5 MMT to the EU this marketing year.

USDA’s weekly Export Sales report will be released on Thursday morning, with estimates of 275,000 to 700,000 MT for 2024/25 soybean sales. Sales for new crop are estimated at 0-100,000 MT. Soybean meal sales are seen in a range of 190,000 to 410,000 MT, with bean oil between 40,000 and 85,000 MT.

Stats Canada planting intentions data was released this morning showing producers expecting to plant 21.65 million acres of canola this year, down 1.7% from last year if realized. Soybean acreage is estimated at 5.64 million aces, down 1.37% yr/yr.

Brazil’s March soybean exports are expected to total 15.45 MMT, according to ANEC, up from the 14.8 MMT in their prior estimates. An Argentine oilseed union has called off a planned strike at processing plants due to a government order.

Mar 25 Soybeans  are at $9.86, down 11 3/4 cents,

Nearby Cash  is at $9.33, down 14 1/4 cents,

May 25 Soybeans  are at $9.96 3/4, down 14 1/2 cents,

Nov 25 Soybeans  are at $10.03, down 12 1/2 cents,

New Crop Cash  is at $9.39 3/4, down 12 1/4 cents,

Cotton Rally Extending into Wednesday

Cotton price action is trading with gains of 41 to 83 points so far on Wednesday. Futures posted slightly mixed trade on Tuesday, with contracts anywhere from up 2 points to down 9 across the front months. The outside markets were supportive factors, with crude oil futures up 59 cents/barrel and the US dollar index back down $0.598 on the day.

Tuesday morning’s update to the USDA cotton balance sheet saw no changes to the US side, with stocks left at 4.9 million bales. The average farm price was down 50 points to 63 cents/lb. The Cotton Ginnings report showed another 162,950 RB ginned during February. That took the season’s total to 14.124 million RB, 20.23% above the same time last year. 

On the world side of the balance sheet, stocks for 2024/25 were down just 80,000 bales to 78.33 million bales. That came on a 200,000 bale reduction to Brazil on increased exports, with Australian stocks up 100,000 bales.

The Monday online auction from The Seam showed 4,756 bales sold, with an average price of 61.17 cents/lb. The Cotlook A Index was up another 75 points on 3/10 at 77.70 cents/lb. ICE cotton stocks were steady again on March 10 with the current level of certified stocks at 14,488 bales. The USDA slashed their Adjusted World Price (AWP) last Thursday afternoon by 201 points to 51.88 cents/lb. 

May 25 Cotton  closed at 66, unch, currently up 82 points

Jul 25 Cotton  closed at 67.19, down 2 points, currently up 79 points

Oct 25 Cotton  closed at 69.2, up 9 points. currently up 41 points

Hogs Fall on Tuesday

Lean hog futures saw Tuesday losses of 45 cent to $1.75, led by the front months. USDA’s national average base hog negotiated price was reported at $90.98 on Tuesday afternoon, up $2.08 from the previous day. The CME Lean Hog Index was down another 29 cents from the previous day at $89.71 on March 7.

The USDA’s WASDE showed projected 2025 pork production at 28.425 billion lbs, down 105 million lbs from last month on a lower quarter 1 output.

USDA’s FOB plant pork cutout was 64 cents lower in the Tuesday afternoon report at $97.58 per cwt. The rib and ham were the primals reported higher. USDA estimated the Tuesday Federally inspected hog slaughter at 489,000 head, with the weekly total at 976,000 head. That is 10,000 head above last week and 36,706 head larger than the same week last year.

Apr 25 Hogs  closed at $86.550, down $1.750,

May 25 Hogs  closed at $90.200, down $1.275

Jun 25 Hogs  closed at $98.375, down $0.450,

Soybeans Slip Weaker into the Tuesday Close

Soybeans are trading with losses on Wednesday morning of 6 to 7 cents across most 2025 contracts. Futures slipped back on Tuesday, closing 1 to 3 cents lower, as USDA made no changes to the US balance sheet. Preliminary open interest showed a rotation of ownership, down just 367 contracts.  The cmdtyView national front month Cash Bean price was down 2 cents at $9.47 1/4. Soymeal futures were steady to down 50 cents/ton in the nearbys, with Soy Oil futures 28 points lower. There were 60 deliveries for March soybeans overnight, with 0 for meal and 56 for March bean oil. 

USDA’s WASDE report from Tuesday morning showed no changes to the US balance sheet, as the carryout was left at 380 mbu. That was in line with estimates. The US cash average price was trimmed by 15 cents to $9.95. 

USDA also made no changes to the major world suppliers, as Brazil (169 MMT) and Argentina (49 MMT) were both left unchanged. However, there was a 2 MMT increase to Chinese crush, which did help to cut back their ending stock to 43.96 MMT. The World ending stocks total was down 2.93 MMT to 121.41 MMT, mainly on the Chinese cut, as well as a reduction to Argentina (1 MMT increase in crush).

Brazil’s March soybean exports are expected to total 15.45 MMT, according to ANEC, up from the 14.8 MMT in their prior estimates. Some Argentine oilseed union workers are planning to go on strike starting Wednesday at processing plants

Mar 25 Soybeans  closed at $9.97 3/4, down 2 cents, currently down 6 cents

Nearby Cash  was $9.47 1/4, down 2 cents,

May 25 Soybeans  closed at $10.11 1/4, down 2 3/4 cents, currently down 6 1/2 cents

Nov 25 Soybeans  closed at $10.15 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents, currently down 6 1/4 cents

New Crop Cash  was $9.51, down 2 1/4 cents,

Corn Falling Early on Wednesday

The corn market is showing early weakness on Wednesday, with contracts down 4 to 8 cents so far. Futures failed to hold the early session gains after USDA failed to trim back their ending stocks projection on Tuesday, with contracts closing fractionally to 3 cents in the red. CmdtyView’s national average Cash Corn price was down 1 1/4 cents at $4.31 1/4. 

Canada’s energy minister stated that potential retaliatory tariffs on US goods could hit ethanol in their second round of duties.

The USDA’s updated balance sheet from Tuesday morning saw no changes, as the US carryout was projected to total 1.54 bbu. That was above estimates calling for a 24 mbu decrease.

On the world side, the USDA made no changes to the South American crops as Argentina was at 50 MMT and Brazil was 126 MMT. The world ending stocks for 2024/25 were cut by 1.37 MMT, coming in below the average trade estimate. That came even as the world production was increased 1.7 MMT. The main reason for the cut was a 1.86 MMT reduction to carryover from 2023/24 as Brazil’s production total from last year was slashed 3 MMT. Brazil exports from this year were down 2 MMT, with domestic use up 1 MMT.

Mar 25 Corn  closed at $4.56 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents, currently down 7 cents

Nearby Cash  was $4.31 1/4, down 1 1/4 cents,

May 25 Corn  closed at $4.70 1/4, down 1 3/4 cents, currently down 8 1/4 cents

Dec 25 Corn  closed at $4.54 1/2, down 1/2 cent, currently down 4 1/2 cents

New Crop Cash  was $4.18 3/8, down 1 1/2 cents,

Wheat Posting Marginal Losses on Wednesday Morning

The wheat market is trading with slight 1 to 4 cent losses early on Wednesday. Wheat closed lower across the three exchanges on Tuesday with more wheat expected this month for the end of the marketing year. Chicago SRW futures were down 4 to 6 cents on the day. KC HRW futures close with 6 to 7 cent losses in the front months. Preliminary open interest showed net new selling, up 2,761 contracts for KC wheat and up 4,391 contracts for CBT wheat.  MPLS spring wheat was 7 to 8 cents lower in the nearbys. There were 12 deliveries for March CBT wheat futures overnight, with 29 for March KC wheat.

There are reports that the Ukrainians have agreed to a 30-day ceasefire, with Secretary of State Rubio taking the offer to the Russian side in the negotiations. 

The monthly WASDE report from USDA showed a 25 mbu increase to the US ending stocks projection at 819 mbu. That came on a 10 mbu increase to imports and 15 mbu cut to exports. The cash average price was also trimmed back by a nickel. 

On the world side, there was ahistorical revision to Turkey, up 2.2 MMT, with Australia production up 2.1 MMT to 34.1 MMT. Ukraine stocks were also up 0.4 MMT on a revision to last year’ output, with Russian exports trimmed back. Chinese Stocks were down 1.5 MMT on lower imports. All of that mixed with the increase to the US took world stocks 2.52 MMT higher to 260.08 MMT.

Coceral estimates the EU (including the UK) wheat production for 2025 at 137.2 MMT, down from 140.4 MMT back in December. 

Mar 25 CBOT Wheat  closed at $5.41, down 4 1/4 cents, currently unch

May 25 CBOT Wheat  closed at $5.56 3/4, down 5 3/4 cents, currently down 2 3/4 cents

Mar 25 KCBT Wheat  closed at $5.58 3/4, down 7 cents, currently unch

May 25 KCBT Wheat  closed at $5.72, down 6 1/2 cents, currently down 2 3/4 cents

Mar 25 MGEX Wheat  closed at $5.82 3/4, down 7 1/4 cents, currently unch

May 25 MGEX Wheat  closed at $5.97 1/4, down 7 1/4 cents, currently down 3 3/4 cents

Cattle Slip Lower on Tuesday

Live cattle futures close the Tuesday session down 75 cents to $1.02 in the nearbys. Cash trade has been quiet so far, with last week’s trade at $196-198 in the south and northern trade at $200-202. Feeder cattle posted mixed action on Tuesday, with contracts 22 cents lower to 45 cents higher. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back up $2.59 cents on March 10, with the average price at $276.54. 

The monthly WASDE update showed projected 2025 beef production at 26.685 billion lbs, up 120 million lbs from last month. That came vis a 65 million lb cut to Q1, with quarter 2 up 25 million lbs, Q3 70 million lb higher the fourth quarter up 90 million lbs. 

The Tuesday afternoon National Wholesale Boxed Beef prices were mixed, with the Chc/Sel widening to $14.34. Choice boxes were up $3.62 at $321.20/cwt, with Select 9 cents lower at $306.86. The Tuesday Federally inspected cattle slaughter was estimated at 124,000 head by the USDA, taking the weekly total to 239,000 head. That is 14,000 head above the previous week and 5,152 larger than the same week last year.

Apr 25 Live Cattle  closed at $199.550, down $1.025,

Jun 25 Live Cattle  closed at $196.250, down $0.975,

Aug 25 Live Cattle  closed at $194.275, down $0.825,

Mar 25 Feeder Cattle  closed at $277.500, up $0.450,

Apr 25 Feeder Cattle  closed at $277.700, down $0.225,

May 25 Feeder Cattle  closed at $278.950, up $0.400,

Cotton Holds Steady at the Closing Bell

Cotton futures posted slightly mixed trade on Tuesday, with contracts anywhere from up 2 points to down 9 across the front months.  The outside markets were supportive factors, with crude oil futures up 59 cents/barrel and the US dollar index back down $0.598 on the day.

This morning’s update to the USDA cotton balance sheet saw no changes to the US side, with stocks left at 4.9 million bales. The average farm price was down 50 points to 63 cents/lb. The Cotton Ginnings report showed another 162,950 RB ginned during February. That took the season’s total to 14.124 million RB, 20.23% above the same time last year. 

On the world side of the balance sheet, stocks for 2024/25 were down just 80,000 bales to 78.33 million bales. That came on a 200,000 bale reduction to Brazil on increased exports, with Australian stocks up 100,000 bales.

The Monday online auction from The Seam showed 4,756 bales sold, with an average price of 61.17 cents/lb. The Cotlook A Index was up another 75 points on 3/10 at 77.70 cents/lb. ICE cotton stocks were steady again on March 10 with the current level of certified stocks at 14,488 bales. The USDA slashed their Adjusted World Price (AWP) last Thursday afternoon by 201 points to 51.88 cents/lb. 

May 25 Cotton  closed at 66, unch

Jul 25 Cotton  closed at 67.19, down 2 points,

Oct 25 Cotton  closed at 69.2, up 9 points

Hogs Fall Back Weaker on Tuesday

Lean hog futures posted Tuesday losses of 45 cent to $1.75, led by the nearbys. USDA’s national average base hog negotiated price was reported at $90.98 on Tuesday afternoon, up $2.08 from the previous day. The CME Lean Hog Index was down another 29 cents from the previous day at $89.71 on March 7. 

The USDA’s WASDE showed projected 2025 pork production at 28.425 billion lbs, down 105 million lbs from last month on a lower quarter 1 output.

USDA’s FOB plant pork cutout was 64 cents lower in the Tuesday afternoon report at $97.58 per cwt. The rib and ham were the primals reported higher. USDA estimated the Tuesday Federally inspected hog slaughter at 489,000 head, with the weekly total at 976,000 head. That is 10,000 head above last week and 36,706 head larger than the same week last year.

Apr 25 Hogs  closed at $86.550, down $1.750,

May 25 Hogs  closed at $90.200, down $1.275

Jun 25 Hogs  closed at $98.375, down $0.450,

Corn Heads Lower into the Close

Corn futures failed to hold the early session gains after USDA failed to trim back their ending stocks projection on Tuesday, with contracts closing fractionally to 3 cents in the red. CmdtyView’s national average Cash Corn price was down 1 1/4 cents at $4.31 1/4.

The USDA’s updated balance sheet from this morning saw no changes, as the US carryout was projected to total 1.54 bbu. That was above estimates calling for a 24 mbu decrease.

On the world side, the USDA made no changes to the South American crops as Argentina was at 50 MMT and Brazil was 126 MMT. The world ending stocks for 2024/25 were cut by 1.37 MMT, coming in below the average trade estimate. That came even as the world production was increased 1.7 MMT. The main reason for the cut was a 1.86 MMT reduction to carryover from 2023/24 as Brazil’s production total from last year was slashed 3 MMT. Brazil exports from this year were down 2 MMT, with domestic use up 1 MMT.

A South Korean importer purchased a total of 133,000 MT of corn overnight.

Mar 25 Corn  closed at $4.56 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents,

Nearby Cash  was $4.31 1/4, down 1 1/4 cents,

May 25 Corn  closed at $4.70 1/4, down 1 3/4 cents,

Dec 25 Corn  closed at $4.54 1/2, down 1/2 cent,

New Crop Cash  was $4.18 3/8, down 1 1/2 cents,

Wheat Holds Tuesday Losses as USDA Raises Stocks Estimate

Wheat closed lower across the three exchanges on Tuesday with more wheat expected this month for the end of the marketing year. Chicago SRW futures were down 4 to 6 cents on the day. KC HRW futures close with 6 to 7 cent losses in the front months. MPLS spring wheat was 7 to 8 cents lower in the nearbys. 

There are reports that the Ukrainians have agreed to a 30-day ceasefire, with Secretary of State Rubio taking the offer to the Russian side in the negotiations. 

The monthly WASDE report from USDA showed a 25 mbu increase to the US ending stocks projection at 819 mbu. That came on a 10 mbu increase to imports and 15 mbu cut to exports. The cash average price was also trimmed back by a nickel. 

On the world side, there was ahistorical revision to Turkey, up 2.2 MMT, with Australia production up 2.1 MMT to 34.1 MMT. Ukraine stocks were also up 0.4 MMT on a revision to last year’ output, with Russian exports trimmed back. Chinese Stocks were down 1.5 MMT on lower imports. All of that mixed with the increase to the US took world stocks 2.52 MMT higher to 260.08 MMT.

Coceral estimates the EU (including the UK) wheat production for 2025 at 137.2 MMT, down from 140.4 MMT back in December. 

Mar 25 CBOT Wheat  closed at $5.41, down 4 1/4 cents,

May 25 CBOT Wheat  closed at $5.56 3/4, down 5 3/4 cents,

Mar 25 KCBT Wheat  closed at $5.58 3/4, down 7 cents,

May 25 KCBT Wheat  closed at $5.72, down 6 1/2 cents,

Mar 25 MGEX Wheat  closed at $5.82 3/4, down 7 1/4 cents,

May 25 MGEX Wheat  closed at $5.97 1/4, down 7 1/4 cents,

Cattle Faces Tuesday Weakness

Live cattle futures settled the Tuesday trade with contracts down 75 cents to $1.02 . Cash trade has been quiet so far, with last week’s trade at $196-198 in the south and northern trade at $200-202. Feeder cattle posted mixed action on Tuesday, with contracts 22 cents lower to 45 cents higher. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back up $2.59 cents on March 10, with the average price at $276.54. 

The monthly WASDE update showed projected 2025 beef production at 26.685 billion lbs, up 120 million lbs from last month. That came vis a 65 million lb cut to Q1, with quarter 2 up 25 million lbs, Q3 70 million lb higher the fourth quarter up 90 million lbs. 

The Tuesday afternoon National Wholesale Boxed Beef prices were mixed, with the Chc/Sel widening to $14.34. Choice boxes were up $3.62 at $321.20/cwt, with Select 9 cents lower at $306.86. The Tuesday Federally inspected cattle slaughter was estimated at 124,000 head by the USDA, taking the weekly total to 239,000 head. That is 14,000 head above the previous week and 5,152 larger than the same week last year.

Apr 25 Live Cattle  closed at $199.550, down $1.025,

Jun 25 Live Cattle  closed at $196.250, down $0.975,

Aug 25 Live Cattle  closed at $194.275, down $0.825,

Mar 25 Feeder Cattle  closed at $277.500, up $0.450,

Apr 25 Feeder Cattle  closed at $277.700, down $0.225,

May 25 Feeder Cattle  closed at $278.950, up $0.400,

Soybeans Slip Weaker into the Tuesday Close

Soybeans slipped back on Tuesday, closing 1 to 3 ents lower, as USDA made no changes to the US balance sheet.  The cmdtyView national front month Cash Bean price was down 2 cents at $9.47 1/4. Soymeal futures were steady to down 50 cents/ton in the nearbys, with Soy Oil futures 28 points lower. 

USDA’s WASDE report from this morning showed no changes to the US balance sheet, as the carryout was left at 380 mbu. That was in line with estimates. The US cash average price was trimmed by 15 cents to $9.95. 

USDA also made no changes to the major world suppliers, as Brazil (169 MMT) and Argentina (49 MMT) were both left unchanged. However, there was a 2 MMT increase to Chinese crush, which did help to cut back their ending stock to 43.96 MMT. The World ending stocks total was down 2.93 MMT to 121.41 MMT, mainly on the Chinese cut, as well as a reduction to Argentina (1 MMT increase in crush).

Brazil’s March soybean exports are expected to total 15.45 MMT, according to ANEC, up from the 14.8 MMT in their prior estimates. Some Argentine oilseed union workers are planning to go on strike starting Wednesday at processing plants

Mar 25 Soybeans  closed at $9.97 3/4, down 2 cents,

Nearby Cash  was $9.47 1/4, down 2 cents,

May 25 Soybeans  closed at $10.11 1/4, down 2 3/4 cents,

Nov 25 Soybeans  closed at $10.15 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents,

New Crop Cash  was $9.51, down 2 1/4 cents,

Corn Holding Higher Despite No Major USDA Changes

The corn market is holding near the pre-report trade, with contracts up factionally to 3 cents so far on Tuesday, despite no major changes to the USDA data. CmdtyView’s national average Cash Corn price is up 3 cents at $4.35 1/2. 

The USDA’s updated balance sheet from this morning saw no changes, as the US carryout was projected to total 1.54 bbu. That was above estimates calling for a 24 mbu decrease.

On the world side, the USDA made no changes to the South American crops as Argentina was at 50 MMT and Brazil was 126 MMT. The world ending stocks for 2024/25 were cut by 1.37 MMT, coming in below the average trade estimate. That came even as the world production was increased 1.7 MMT. The main reason for the cut was a 1.86 MMT reduction to carryover from 2023/24 as Brazil’s production from last year total was slashed 3 MMT.

A South Korean importer purchased a total of 133,000 MT of corn overnight.

Mar 25 Corn is at $4.60, up 1 1/4 cents,

Nearby Cash is at $4.35 1/2, up 3 cents,

May 25 Corn is at $4.74 3/4, up 2 3/4 cents,

Dec 25 Corn is at $4.55 3/4, up 3/4 cent,

New Crop Cash is at $4.20 0/1, up 1/2 cent,

Soybeans Higher at Midday, with very Few USDA Adjustments

Soybeans are trading with 2 to 4 cent gains so far on Tuesday, as USDA made no changes to the US balance sheet.  The cmdtyView national front month Cash Bean price is up 3 1/4 cents at $9.53 3/4. Soymeal futures are up 60 cents/ton in the nearbys, with Soy Oil futures 9 points lower. There were no deliveries against March beans overnight, with 1 for March soy meal and 195 for March bean oil. 

USDA’s WASDE report from this morning showed no changes to the US balance sheet, as the carryout was left at 380 mbu. That was in line with estimates. The US cash average price was trimmed by 15 cents to $9.95. 

USDA also made no changes to the major world suppliers, as Brazil (169 MMT) and Argentina (49 MMT) were both left unchanged. However, there was a 2 MMT increase to Chinese crush, which did help to cut back their ending stock to 43.96 MMT. The World ending stocks total was down 2.93 MMT to 121.41 MMT, mainly on the Chinese cut, as well as a reduction to Argentina (1 MMT increase in crush).

Mar 25 Soybeans  are at $10.03 1/4, up 3 1/2 cents,

Nearby Cash  is at $9.53 3/4, up 3 1/4 cents,

May 25 Soybeans  are at $10.17, up 3 cents,

Nov 25 Soybeans  are at $10.20 3/4, up 3 cents,

New Crop Cash  is at $9.55 1/2, up 2 1/4 cents,

Hogs Heading Lower at Midday

Lean hog futures are trading with losses of 30 cents to $1.40 at midday. USDA’s national average base hog negotiated price was reported at $84.45 on Tuesday morning, up $1.46 from the previous day. The CME Lean Hog Index was down another 29 cents from the previous day at $89.71 on March 7. 

The USDA’s WASDE showed projected 2025 pork production at 28.425 billion lbs, down 105 million lbs from last month on a lower quarter 1 output.

USDA’s FOB plant pork cutout was 80 cents higher in the Tuesday morning report at $99.02 per cwt. The loin and butt were the primals reported lower. USDA estimated the Monday Federally inspected hog slaughter at 487,000 head. That is 2,000 head above last Monday and 29,835 head larger than the same week last year.

Apr 25 Hogs  are at $86.900, down $1.400,

May 25 Hogs  are at $90.550, down $0.925

Jun 25 Hogs  is at $98.525, down $0.300,

Wheat Creeping Lower As USDA Raises Carryout Estimate

Wheat is trading with midday weakness across the three exchanges on Tuesday. Chicago SRW futures are down 2 to 5 cents so far on the day. KC HRW futures are down 4 to 5 cents in the front months. MPLS spring wheat is 5 to 7 cents lower in the nearbys. There were 3 deliveries for KC March wheat overnight, with 11 for March CBT wheat.

The monthly WASDE report from USDA showed a 25 mbu increase to the US ending stocks projection at 819 mbu. That came on a 10 mbu increase to imports and 15 mbu cut to exports. The cash average price was also trimmed back by a nickel. 

On the world side, there was ahistorical revision to Turkey, up 2.2 MMT, with Australia production up 2.1 MMT to 34.1 MMT. Ukraine stocks were also up 0.4 MMT on a revision to last year’ output, with Russian exports trimmed back. Chinese Stocks were down 1.5 MMT on lower imports. All of that mixed with the increase to the US took world stocks 2.52 MMT higher to 260.08 MMT.

Individual state Crop Progress reports from Monday showed KS winter wheat rated 52% gd/ex, with a Brugler500 index at 337, down from 54% and 344 respectively from the week prior. Ratings in TX were down 6% and 13 points on the Brugler500 to 28% gd/ex and 282, respectively. 

Coceral estimates the EU (including the UK) wheat production for 2025 at 137.2 MMT, down from 140.4 MMT back in December. 

Mar 25 CBOT Wheat  is at $5.42 1/2, down 2 3/4 cents,

May 25 CBOT Wheat  is at $5.58 1/4, down 4 1/4 cents,

Mar 25 KCBT Wheat  is at $5.65 3/4, up 14 1/2 cents,

May 25 KCBT Wheat  is at $5.73 1/2, down 5 cents,

Mar 25 MGEX Wheat  is at $5.90, up 12 cents,

May 25 MGEX Wheat  is at $5.98, down 6 1/2 cents,

Cattle Mostly Falling Back on Tuesday

Live cattle futures are down $1 to $1.25 so far on Tuesday’s midday. Cash trade has been quiet so far, with most compiling showlists on Monday. Last week’s trade came in at $196-198 in the south, with northern trade at $200-202, steady to $2 higher wk/wk. Feeder cattle are trading with contracts 30 cents to $1.25 lower at Tuesday’s midday. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back up 18 cents on March 7, with the average price at $273.95. The Monday OKC feeder cattle auction has an estimated 5,000 head, which is nearly half of the week prior, and slightly below the same week last year. Feeder steers were up $5-10, with heifers $3-8 higher. Lighter weight steers were up $5-15, with heifers steady.

The monthly WASDE update showed projected 2025 beef production at 26.685 billion lbs, up 120 million lbs from last month. That came vis a 65 million lb cut to Q1, with quarter 2 up 25 million lbs, Q3 70 million lb higher the fourth quarter up 90 million lbs. 

The Tuesday morning National Wholesale Boxed Beef prices shot higher, with the Chc/Sel spread at $12.83. Choice boxes were up $4.74 at $323.32/cwt, with Select $2.54 higher at $309.49. Monday’s Federally inspected cattle slaughter was estimated at 115,000 head by the USDA. That is 13,000 head above the previous Monday and 3,088 larger than the same week last year.

Apr 25 Live Cattle  are at $199.350, down $1.225,

Jun 25 Live Cattle  are at $196.025, down $1.200,

Aug 25 Live Cattle  are at $194.075, down $1.025,

Mar 25 Feeder Cattle  are at $276.675, down $0.375

Apr 25 Feeder Cattle  are at $276.700, down $1.225

May 25 Feeder Cattle  are at $278.225, down $0.325

Cotton Holding Higher on Tuesday

Cotton futures are trading with contracts 21 to 50 points in the red on Tuesday. The outside markets are supportive factors, with crude oil futures up 29 cents/barrel and the US dollar index back down $0.628 on the day.

This morning’s update to the USDA cotton balance sheet saw no changes to the US side, with stocks left at 4.9 million bales. The average farm price was down 50 points to 63 cents/lb. The Cotton Ginnings report showed another 162,950 RB ginned during February. That took the season’s total to 14.124 million RB, 20.23% above the same time last year. 

On the world side of the balance sheet, stocks for 2024/25 were down just 80,000 bales to 78.33 million bales. That came on a 200,000 bale reduction to Brazil on increased exports, with Australian stocks up 100,000 bales.

The Monday online auction from The Seam showed 4,756 bales sold, with an average price of 61.17 cents/lb. The Cotlook A Index was up another 75 points on 3/10 at 77.70 cents/lb. ICE cotton stocks were steady again on March 10 with the current level of certified stocks at 14,488 bales. The USDA slashed their Adjusted World Price (AWP) last Thursday afternoon by 201 points to 51.88 cents/lb. 

May 25 Cotton  is at 66.21, up 21 points,

Jul 25 Cotton  is at 67.42, up 21 points,

Oct 25 Cotton  is at 69.11, up 49 points

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com