Does the CPI reading help with plugging the 2-day slide?

Stock brokers analyzing stocks on screen by Standret via Shutterstock

The S&P Indexes all-time high made this past Friday appears to be short-lived. After just stopping shy of taking out 6100 this past Friday while clocking a high of 6099.97, we've closed lower in the past two sessions this week closing at 6052.85 and 6034.91 between yesterday and today respectively. Meanwhile the December S&P and Nasdaq futures appeared to have held secondary support levels earlier today at 6041 and 21361 respectively only dipping lower a few points from those price prints. Here are the support and resistance levels for the four broad index futures heading into tomorrow:

Pivot price points for tomorrow's session

The drop in inflation appears to have stalled and one wonders if this is temporary or if the upcoming change in guard at the central government will actually stall this some more. The consensus forecast however expects that the trend will more or less hold steady. While we are expecting the Core CPI reading to hold steady, the YoY does have the potential to tick higher. How should one trade the index futures heading into tomorrow? From a pure price perspective and regardless of how the futures move in the overnight session, we believe it is important for the ES futures to hold between the S1~S2 [6042.25~6032.50] levels. Similarly, the tech heavy Nasdaq futures which settled above today S2 [21361] after the close today needs to hold S1~S2 [21360.50~21290.50]. Now empowered with this skeletal price data, it should not be difficult to traverse the overnight price action into the CPI data point tomorrow. From a Fibonacci point of view, we are expecting the 6023~6041 price range for the ES futures to hold and if this is true heading into and after the data, we will be trading the market to the upside while keeping a tight stop at 6015 and holding this position in anticipation of a squeeze that should target most recent highs at 6111.

If trading the Nasdaq futures, we expect to be trading the Micro futures and using extra wide stop while looking for support in a super wide price band between 21200~21345 while holding our long positions if this price band holds while targeting most recent highs at 21669.25 as an initial profit target.  

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