Soybeans

Technicals
March soybean futures continued to retreat yesterday and are struggling to find their footing in the early morning trade, though are defending yesterday’s low of 1040, which came in just a penny above our first support level. A failure here and a further decline down to 1018 1/2-1025 seems likely. If that gives way, the recent trend of higher lows would be at risk of turning into lower lows. All noise aside; the chart is constructive until then.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 1073 1/2-1076 1/4***, 1097 1/4-1101****
Pivot: 1055-1062 1/2
Support: 1039**, 1018 1/2-1025***, 1003-1008 1/4***

Fundamental Notes

• Brazil’s 2024/25 soybean crop is expected to total 171 million metric tons, agribusiness consultancy AgRural said on Monday, lowering its forecast by 500,000 tons due to lower yields in the states of Mato Grosso do Sul, Parana and Rio Grande do Sul. -Reuters
• Weekly export inspections were reported at 729k metric tons, below the low end of estimates and about 250k less than last week’s report.

Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 1.27.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for March soybean futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).

Commitment of Traders Update
Managed money bolstered their bullish bets on soybean futures & options by just over 7,000 contracts, now holding a net-long position of 40,330 contracts between futures & options.
 

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