Live Cattle (February)

February live cattle futures ripped higher yesterday, trading to an eyepopping 208.15. The market finished the day about $2.00 off the highs but was still an impressive feat. The sharp rally over the past four sessions has brought the RSI to 76.3, the highest reading in some time. The fundamentals remain strong, but the velocity of the move and market positioning is not sustainable over a long period of time.

Resistance: 208.15**
Pivot: 203.75-204.125
Support: 199.57-200.00***, 195.72–196.00***

Daily Cattle and Beef Summary

Cutout values were strong to start the week with choice cuts 2.16 higher to 330.08 and select cuts 4.26 higher to 320.55. Monday’s slaughter was reported at 114k head, 1k less than last week and 8k less than the same day last year. The 5-area average price for live steers came in at a scorching 209.19.

The CME feeder Cattle Index is at 277.93 with the NBW Real-Time Index showing 279.83 as of this morning.

Seasonal Tendency Update
(updated 1.27.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for April futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).

Commitment of Traders Update
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were relatively flat through last Tuesday’s trade. Funds are net long 149,756 contracts. Looking at the back half of last week’s trade I think it’s safe to assume Funds are at a new record net long.

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