WTI Crude Oil Futures (March)

Yesterday’s Settlement: 73.17, down -1.49 [-2.00%]

Yesterday’s sell-off was largely tied to the macro risk-off move we saw. American equities sold off sharply, which dragged risk assets lower alongside it. The start of the Chinese New Year will also work to ease cash market pressures as the country goes on a complete Holiday until February 4th at the earliest. There are reports that many Chinese company’s are taking an extended New Year’s holiday this year.

Futures settled within our major three-star support level of 72.97-73.24*** after briefly trading below it intraday.

Today, futures are higher by +1.00 [+1.37%] to 74.17

Protests in Lebanon have shut off crude oil exports at two of the country’s main ports. The shutdown has taken 200-300k bpd of exports out of the market. Traders are weighing this bullish catalyst against the latest Trump headlines.

Trump is back in the headlines, threatening universal tariffs for all of our trade partners.

Technical Analysis:

WTI Crude Oil futures settled above our major three-star support level of 72.97-73.24***, setting up a solid speculative long position. Futures are back trading above this level and into no-man’s land this morning. We like positioning only at high-conviction levels within this environment as headline volatility is to be expected.

Intraday, our pivot and point of balance is set at 73.55 with intraday resistance at 74.50 and support at 72.97. A settlement above 73.24 would be ideal for the day while a settlement below 72.97*** would signal continued momentum to the downside.

Cash and physical markets remain tight while the futures market continues its consolidation.

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